Meester a modern introduction to probability and statistics understanding why and how with 120 figures. A properly normalized function that assigns a probability density to each possible outcome within some interval is called a probability density function or probability distribution function, and its cumulative value integral for a continuous distribution or sum for a discrete distribution is called a distribution function or. In it, kent eloquently lays out the challenges then faced by the cia with risk communication which closely resembles the challenges faced by the avalanche community today. Friedman dartmouth college richard zeckhauser harvard kennedy school forthcoming in intelligence and national security this version. Words of estimative probability kristian glass do i smell. Exploring mathematics students understanding of language of.
Sherman kent the briefing officer was reporting a photo reconnaissance mission. This is a briefbutinformed jaunt through the history of u. A modern introduction to probability and statistics. These assessments, which are based on incomplete or at times fragmentary. An nie should set forth the communitys findings in such a way as to make clear to the reader what is certain knowledge and what is reasoned judgment, and within this large realm of judgment what varying degrees of certitude lie behind each key judgment. Words of estimative probability hod2500 systematic. This classic piece on the need for precision in intelligence judgments was originally classified confidential and published in the fall 1964 number of studies in intelligence. Intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. Ineffective weps are vague or misleading about the likelihood. The reason i loved this book is because it established historical context on the subject of risk and probability.
Words of estimative probability sherman kent the briefing officer was reporting a photo reconnaissance mission. Words turn probabilities into facts and by sheer force of definition translate tendencies into habits author fay weldon 1931 son 004. Words of estimative probability military wiki fandom. May 15, 2015 warren buffetts wells fargo investment. A wellchosen wep provides a decision maker with an unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Probability and statistics vocabulary list definitions for. Words of estimative probability wep or weps are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. At one end of the spectrum are those, who call for numeric estimates. In the previous class we looked at updating the probability of hypotheses based on data.
It culminates in an overview of current problem areas in u. Give an example of an event that would fit each probability word. Studying verbalizations of scatterplots multimodal approaches where interactive visualization and natural language are. The commission on the intelligence capabilities of the united states regarding weapons of mass destruction expressed in its report on march 31, 2005 that analysts must find ways to explain to policymakers degrees of certainty in. Exploring mathematics students understanding of language.
Ineffective weps are vague or misleading about the likelihood of an event. Who have words of estimative probability typically been used by. Probability and statistics vocabulary list definitions for middle school teachers b bar graph a diagram representing the frequency distribution for nominal or discrete data. Journal of the royal college of general practitioners 39, p 98100, march 1989. The language used in the bin laden memo lacks words of estimative probability wep that reduce uncertainty, thus preventing the president and his decision makers from implementing measures directed at stopping al qaedas actions. Words of estimative probability weps one must be careful with words. Alternatively, you can add nobotsdenyinternetarchivebot to keep me off the page altogether.
Jul 07, 2008 words of estimative probability this classic piece on the need for precision in intelligence judgments was originally classified confidential and published in the fall 1964 number of studies in intelligence. In this work, kent outlined several key terms with a probability and a range and. Words of estimative probability last updated november 05, 2019. Perception of probability words wade fagenulmschneider. However i dont like the degree of exactitude they suggest similar to my dislike of the use of the word prediction. Words of estimative probability wep wep prediction. Words of estimative probability a group of terms that are advisable to use when intelligence analysts talk about the likelihood of future forecasts with some knownestimated probabilities in order to establish this set of words, kent, together. Society of information risk analysts recommended reading. Randomness is really the lack of probability and this book made me question my own belief in seeking causeneffect by questioning events as simply being a product of randomness. Words of estimative probability jan 5 th, 2017 uncertainties are common, from were almost certain this is the cause of the outage, to project x probably wont finish before we need to start project y, and the train will almost certainly be on time tomorrow. Who have words of estimative probability typically been used. Words of estimative probability kristian glass do i.
Anyone writing a probability text today owes a great debt to william feller, who taught us all how to make probability come alive as a subject matter. Handling and mishandling estimative probability likelihood, confidence, and the search for bin laden jeffrey a. These termsallow analysts to express probabil ity qualitatively, yet more finely than what confidence levels allow wheaton 2012. The wikipedia page claims that likelihood and probability are distinct concepts in nontechnical parlance, likelihood is usually a synonym for probability, but in statistical usage there is a clear distinction in perspective. In his seminal, originally classified report, central intelligence agency cia analyst sherman kent introduces. Originally a classified work, words of estimative probability was published in studies in intelligence in 1964. They express the extent of their confidence in the finding. In order to establish this set of words, kent, together with his team, investigated how terms such as al.
The evaluation of probability expressions in general practice. I have just added archive links to one external link on words of estimative probability. Ok, let me take you back to the 1960s when sherman kent words of estimative probability. Words of estimative probability wikimili, the free.
An explanation of estimative language u when we use words such as we judge or we assessterms that we use synonymouslyas well as we estimate, likely, or indicate, we are trying to convey an analytical assessment or judgment. In words of estimative probability kent distinguished between poets those preferring wordy probabilistic statements from mathematicians those preferring quantitative odds. The value of word of estimative probability weps is, of course, an ongoing question both within the intelligence community and among its critics. View notes words of estimative probability from hod 1700 at vanderbilt university. Nov 28, 2019 in his seminal, originally classified report, central intelligence agency cia analyst sherman kent introduces. Estimative probability words of estimative probability4 propose clear wording while estimating probability of occurence from an event a misp taxonomy called estimative language5 proposes an applied model to tag information in accordance with the. Jul, 2018 ok, let me take you back to the 1960s when sherman kent words of estimative probability wep or weps are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. Words of estimative probability words of estimative probability by sherman kent of the cia was originally published in 1964. In order to establish this set of words, kent, together with. What kind of role could you find yourself in at vanderbilt or later in your career where you would use these words. If necessary, add after the link to keep me from modifying it. Mar 09, 2008 the value of word of estimative probability weps is, of course, an ongoing question both within the intelligence community and among its critics.
Words of estimative probability are central to an analysts ability to clearly convey a set of judgments. What is the difference between likelihood and probability. Recent nies front matter defininginclude words of estimative probability weps. Words turn probabilities into facts and by sheer force of definition translate tendencies into habits author fay weldon 1931 son 004 er 999. Provide an example of a situation you might use them for and provide a specific example of a sentence you might write. Probability and statistics vocabulary list definitions. Although sherman kents efforts to quantify what were essentially qualitative judgments did not prevail, the essays general theme. Words of estimative probability central intelligence agency.
Words of estimative probability wikipedia republished wiki 2. Bin laden memo lacks words of estimative probability wep that reduce uncertainty, thus preventing the president and his decision makers from implementing measures directed at stopping al. Words of estimative probability wikimili, the free encyclopedia. The first widely published work to begin to analyze the perception of probabilistic words was written by sherman kent while he was working for the cia. The efficacy of accelerated analysis in strategiclevel.
It consists of a sequence of bars, or rectangles, corresponding to the. Words of estimative probability a group of terms that are advisable to use when intelligence analysts talk about the likelihood of future forecasts with some knownestimated probabilities. To bridge the gap between them and decision makers, kent developed a paradigm relating estimative terms to odds. It consists of a sequence of bars, or rectangles, corresponding to the possible values, and the length of each is proportional to the frequency. National intelligence estimate nie nie 200602r, trends. Words of estimative probability wikipedia republished. He could have located it to the second on a larger map. Verbal probability expressions in national intelligence. Words of estimative probability a group of terms that are advisable to use when intelligence analysts talk about the likelihood of future forecasts with some knownestimated probabilities 1. In his article, kent discusses the need for common words to provide estimative meaning in intelligence assessments. We can also use the data to update the probability of each possible outcome of a future experiment. Exploring mathematics students understanding of language of estimative probability in relation to the probability scale. Wheaton, chair this thesis presents the findings comparing the accuracy of strategiclevel. Studying verbalizations of scatterplots multimodal approaches where interactive visualization and natural language are used in tandem are emerging.
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